Where would we be - ADSL2+, VDSL2

The good people at Bell Labs and other research and development powerhouses continue to come up with ways to make those copper speeds faster. Currently ADSL2+ will provide maximum speeds of 24Mbps (with the emphasis on maximum). Meanwhile VDSL2 services, which Telecom has been trialling for a year and will launch in mid- August. Crockett says on day one 15% of all telephone lines will be able to receive VDSL2 services, by the end of the year it will be 35%, and by the end of 2011 when cabinetisation is finished it will be 60% of all lines.

The catch of course is that you have to be located within 1km of an exchange or cabinet to get the speeds, which Crockett says are a minimum of 15Mbps down and 5Mbps up.

Digital divides
So broadband speeds would get faster, probably keeping pace with customer demand – as new applications came onto the market, broadband services would improve to cater to the increasing demand for bandwidth.

But it’s fair to say there would be a digital divide – not just between those living in the city and those on the farm but between those living in the same neighbourhood. It could become like zoning for high achieving state schools, those on one side of the street would get 50Mbps, those on the other 24Mbps.

Meanwhile, on the margins, there would spring up boutique fibre networks, maybe a bit like what happened with the North Shore Education Access Loop. Where Vector received a $4.5 million government subsidy to connect 45 schools at a concessionary rate but was able to charge businesses market prices to connect to the same fast fibre pipe.